I'm wondering how good the climate models of the recent past have been at predicting the current climate.
Notably, I've heard quite a few times that the temperature was increasing faster than the models projections. Is this the case?
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This article addresses the question, although I don't know how valid it is: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming – Communisty Feb 19 '18 at 12:34
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4Related: How good were climate models of the 1990s at predicting the global temperature trends of the 2000s/2010s? – Pont Feb 19 '18 at 14:25
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Climate models are run in an ensemble with multiple scenarios. So you should look at the different scenarios to clarify your question. RCP 8.5 may be the one you're interested in. – f.thorpe Feb 20 '18 at 03:19
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This question is much broader than the suggested duplicate candidate. It ask for past climate models in general in correlation to observations now. – Communisty Feb 21 '18 at 08:07
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1Define "recent past" more precisely and this might become answerable. – userLTK Feb 22 '18 at 06:37
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1Also, perhaps post an article or two that you read. There are a number of articles out that have said basically what you said that turn up with a google search, but there's too much range in this question and too many models to compare to. – userLTK Feb 22 '18 at 06:43
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@userLTK Agreed. This might become a worthwhile and answerable question if it focused on one or two specific, sourced claims. – Pont Feb 22 '18 at 20:25